Tuesday, April 06, 2010

What is happening in Talas Kyrgyzstan? (A Conversation with Edil Baisalov)

Photobucket
(courtesy of RFE/RL)

Today, news spread that Kyrgyzstan was engulfed in political turmoil once again. Just about five years after the protests of the “Tulip Revolution” forced former President Askar Akayev from office, all too familiar reports are coming from Kyrgyzstan that those in opposition to the present president are clashing with police in regions around the country and attempting to take over regional governmental buildings. Thus far, it appears that most of the activity has taken place in Talas, a regional center to the west near southern Kazakhstan, where crowds have taken over the government building (twice actually). Oppositionists, however, pledge to expand the scope of these protests throughout the country in the upcoming days, and, as the following interview shows, the aim is once again to remove the president from office.

When I heard this, I immediately contacted a friend of mine who has been a prime mover in Kyrgyzstan’s politics over the last decade, Edil Baisalov. The last time I interviewed Edil for this blog was in November of 2007. At that time, he was making the transition from the world of NGO civic advocacy to that of political representation by running for parliament in Kyrgyzstan. Political machinations in the country, however, led to accusations that he had violated the elections law, and the government sought him on criminal charges. As a result, he eventually fled to Sweden where he is presently in exile as a political refugee, but he remains, as always, involved in political events in his homeland. As somebody who had taken part in the March 2005 protests that ousted former President Akayev and as somebody who retains close ties with opposition figures in Kyrgyzstan today, Edil offers an interesting perspective on recent events that, while very obviously partisan, is both passionate and informed by lessons of the past. The transcript of an interview I conducted with Edil today follows.

Edil

S.R.: So, can you fill us in on what is actually happening in Kyrgyzstan at the moment?

E.B.: Just a few hours ago, after 9:00 pm Bishkek time, Bakiyev’s special riot police simultaneously stormed the Talas oblast government building and arrested several leading opposition members in Bishkek, including Omurbek Tekebaev and Almaz Atambaev. At this time, the people in Talas have retaken the building and are reportedly preparing en masse for a large show of force against the Bakiyev government tomorrow. Also we expect that tomorrow earlier scheduled rallies will take place in Naryn, Issykkul, Alay, Aksy and a few other places.

In the last six months the Kyrgyz people have seen that the Bakiyev family is not content with only falsifying parliamentary and presidential elections and limiting all democratic freedoms. We have witnessed the Bakiyev family boldly violating the Constitution and usurping all powers by destroying the whole structure of state governance. The regime has created an unconstitutional “Central Agency" headed by the 32 year old son of the president, Maxim, that was given total control of the economy, leaving the prime minister and cabinet with no viable powers. We even saw Maxim Bakiyev chair meetings where he scolded the prime minister publicly on TV. We saw the scandal of Eugene Gourevitch, the hailed “financial genius of all government downsizing,” turn out to be linked to a grandiose multi-billion dollar Mafia ring. We saw Kyrgyzstan’s main national assets, such as Kyrgyztelecom and the electricity grid Severelectro ‘privatized’ for less then a tenth of their real worth. Finally, the 300 million USD credit given by Russia to deal with the financial crisis was being mismanaged. In fact, this money allegedly was being reinvested by a semi-private entity controlled by Maxim Bakiyev into bank deposits instead of being used by government for purposes of ‘economic development’ as prescribed by the inter-governmental agreement.

So the warning signs were all there. The people’s “Kurultay” of March 17th listed all the points of frustration with the Bakiyev regime and demanded action. Instead, the Bakiyevs turned off Radio Liberty, blocked websites and blogs, and shut down the last independent newspapers and TV channels. Clearly, the Bakiyev regime does not want to engage the people of the country at this point. The government has even periodically turned off Internet access and mobile phone networks today.

S.R.: Ok, so people are dissatisfied with Bakiyev, but are there particular factors that have led to these protests taking place now?

E.B.: There are two factors. The first one informed and influenced the political elite. This was Bakiyev’s attempts to undercut important political actors in the country through politically motivated criminal charges. One of these trials involved former Minister of Defence Ismail Isakov, who was sentenced to eight years in prison for supposedly providing his officer son with an apartment. Another involved former Foreign Affairs Minister Alikbek Djekshenkulov, who was accused both of taking part in the murder of a Turkish businessman and of mismanaging a grant from the Chinese. There are several other cases of political persecution still ongoing. Taken together with the overwhelming evidence that the Bakiyev-operated secret service personnel brutally murdered journalist Gennadiy Pavlyuk in December, these cases proved that the Bakiyev family is not going to tolerate any dissent and wants to run the republic as a medieval khanate.

The second factor that finally ignited mass opposition against the Bakiyevs came with the sharp increase in electricity and utility tariffs. There was also an increase in mobile phone charges. Given that the whole population knows that the Bakiyev family owns these industries, what was already very negative public opinion towards them turned aggressive. Even the last remaining skeptics could not anymore deny that Bakiyev’s government is interested only in maximizing the financial profits of the ruling family, not in serving the national interest.

S.R.: Many people believe that most protests in Kyrgyzstan over the last five years have merely attracted “protestors-for-hire” from various regions, thus representing more the political aspirations of a few oppositionists than a grassroots movement. Are the protests taking place presently in the country any different?

E.B.: We will always hear this criticism in a dirt poor country such as Kyrgyzstan. Yes, unemployment is so high that many people have simply nothing to do and would thankfully accept the ride to go to Bishkek or an oblast center to rally. But given the last three years of Bakiyev’s total intolerance of public dissent - during which people in Nookat, Balykchy, Petrovka and elsewhere received harsh jail terms for taking part in rallies – one cannot suggest that the people protesting in Talas are doing it for easy money. The people have had enough. They know that they cannot expect much from government, but at least before there was a system for channeling public frustration with relative freedom of media and political competition. The Kyrgyz people will not accept authoritarian rule. This is a battle for freedoms. All of us understand that if we lose it this time, we will need to submit to decades of dictatorial rule.

S.R.: What do you think will be the result of these protests? Will it lead to real change, and if so, how?

E.B.: There has been a great deal of soul searching inside the opposition in the last few years. We know that we essentially failed in reaching our objectives in March of 2005. We came to accept the fact that we were mistaken in believing that removing an authoritarian regime is a success by itself. Not only did we not pay close attention to the personality of Kurmanbek Bakiyev, but we largely let him run the country as an authoritarian leader with little consequences. This time, the opposition believes in much more deep reforms from the beginning if Bakiyev is ousted. These would include a complete dismissal of the judiciary and secret service as well as bans on public service for people who took part in violating constitutional freedoms and other measures. We have a program of clear actions that should be established in the first few months of a new ‘people’s’ government - irreversible changes that will provide the track for future development.

S.R.: Ok, so the goal is regime change. But didn't the opposition also say there would be wide-sweeping reforms after March 2005? Is it not likely that a new government that replaces Bakiyev will become a kleptocracy just as that which replaced Akayev did?

E.B.: I would be foolish to promise a modern and transparent democracy over night. The only viable hope is for a lesser kleptocracy, a people-fearing regime that is more or less controlled by a strong system of checks and balances and an active civil society. The struggle for a better future should not and will not stop after a simple regime change. It will require hard work.

S.R.: How should the international community respond to these events?

E.B.: We expect world powers, such as Russia and United States, to express in the strongest language possible that the use of force against peaceful protesters is unacceptable. The Bakiyev family lacks the legitimacy to use force against the people. We expect the OSCE troika chaired by Kazakhstan to meet immediately and send a high profile international mediator delegation to Bishkek. There is no solution to the current situation other then early elections. If the Bakiyev family is so sure of themselves, let them stand the test of a ballot in a free and fair environment.

S.R.: Many see the many political protests in Kyrgyzstan as leading to a political system where protests are the only means to be heard. How do you think the country can end that cycle?

E.B.: This is the situation where any political system will end up after being denied access to public airwaves and parliamentary halls. The Bakiyevs are repeating the mistakes of the Akaevs and will now face the consequences. The Kyrgyz people are resilient, but they cannot take abuse forever. We are standing up to a tyrant once again!

28 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

what you mean by Central Asia and Kazakhstan. Central Asia includes Kazakhstan. Check your banner, it compromises all your content, if you can't even get your title right.

2:13 AM  
Blogger Sean R. Roberts, PhD said...

Anonymous -

Well, there are actually several definitions of Central Asia, some of which include Kazakhstan and some of which do not. But, if you do not like the name of the blog, you are welcome not to read it.

3:24 AM  
Blogger kashgar216 said...

Great piece and thank you for posting it so quickly. I wish you would post more often like you used to, not only when there is a crisis.

Take care.

11:07 AM  
Blogger Diane said...

With the exception of, perhaps, Alay, it appears that all of the protests are in the North. This suggests that it is once again a regional dispute (as it was, in part, with Akaev) or that Bakiev still has a secure southern base. If Osh or Jalalabat erupt, we have a different situation.

Jeff Renz

11:08 AM  
Blogger Sean R. Roberts, PhD said...

Kashgar216 -

I apologize for my lack of posting over this past several months. I have many excuses to offer, not the least being that my present job has forced me to spend much time looking at global issues and not exclusively at the region. Also, of course, academia has yet to fully recognize blogging as an activity of worthiness. But, those excuses aside, I will pledge to be a better blogger into the upcoming months.

Jeff -

I would actually argue that these events have a far more pronounced regional dimension than the events of March 2005. This time I get the sense that many of the opposition supporters have begun to view Bakiyev as inextricably linked to the "south." As a result, I have seen much commentary that smacks of anti-southern rhetoric. This could create troubling tensions between north and south. Fortunately, some of the primary opposition politicians are still from the south (Tekebayev and Beknazarov for example). This hopefully will prevent things from denigrating into a strictly regional conflict with risks for civil war.

1:06 PM  
Blogger BHL said...

Excellent post, Sean. Thanks for posting this interview so promptly. Edil is reportedly on his way to Kyrgyzstan right now. I wish him the best.

2:39 PM  
Anonymous Jeff said...

Sean,

I agree with your take. KG24 reports that the President and the Defense Minister flew to Osh and that the city administration has confirmed this. This situation means that more violence is likely. I don't think a new government will be in a position to leave Bakiev in power.

In the meantime, Maxim Bakiev has arrived in DC. My source says that the Embassy isn't sure what to do about him.

Jeff

6:20 PM  
Blogger Sean R. Roberts, PhD said...

Yes, the Maxim thing is very interesting. He is in DC to talk to some investment forum. At the very least, there are no investors who would take him seriously at this point. But, the embassy is also an interesting question - they are sort of between a rock and a hard place on this now that we essentially have two governments claiming sovereignty.

6:24 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

%14 of Kazakhstan's area is in Europe. That's why a definiton Central Asia and Kazakhstan (as a whole) might fit better.
Edil is a young activist. But nomore. In Kyrgyzstan, there are no charismatic opposition leaders. Sariev, Tekebaev, Atambaev and of course Otunbaeva are all just "MANGKA"s. These people should be taken to court.

6:26 PM  
Blogger Laurakistan said...

Thank you, Sean. I am so worried about folks and hard to find friends on the ground there. I am glad you are still in contact with Edil. I hope he is doing ok along with everyone else going through all this. I will keep checking back. Take good care. Laura Lockard

11:26 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Why hasn't the US helped get Bakiev, his Son, Nadel and Goreveitch detained??? Are they going to yet again conceal the US involvement in allowing corrupt Governments to rule just for cheap fuel?

The fantastic amounts these people have stolen/defrauded with global links to some of the most unsavoury groups just beggars belief?

2:16 PM  
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