Friday, June 09, 2006

Is there a housing bubble in Kazakhstan?

Around the world, housing prices have climbed in the last several years. Kazakhstan is no exception. In Kazakhstan, there are numerous reasons for this growth--the introduction of mortgages and the fast paced economic growth of the country are the most obvious. The question that many people are asking in Kazakhstan, however, is whether the rise in housing prices can continue. While the fast growth of housing prices is likely to flatten in the near future, it is unlikely that there will be a large burst in the bubble. More likely, one will see location take on a much more prominent role in urban home pricing. Already, analysis of Almaty by street shows significant different pricing.

There is one aspect of the housing market in Kazakhstan, however, that could cause general concern--that is the incredible boom in housing construction, especially in Almaty and Astana. The question is whether the demand can meet the new supply. In Almaty, the answer is probably yes, given the already developed center of the city and the lack of open land for new development. In Astana, however, the jury is still out. While the demand for apartments in Almaty is still higher than in Astana, Almaty reportedly only has eight major new apartment building projects on going at the moment (more will need to await the mass removal of old construction). In Astana, however, there are now 139 major new apartment building projects being undertaken!!! Even with the city as the capital of the country, can we assume that the tough winters and mosquito-ridden summers can muster that demand?

4 Comments:

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7:13 AM  
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6:23 AM  
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